Forecast Council: State revenues continue to roll in above projections; Solid job and personal income growth

The good economic news for the state continues. The Economic and Revenue Forecast Council reports

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose 16,000 (seasonally adjusted) in June, July, and August, which represents a solid 1.9% annual rate of growth. This was down from a very strong 2.9% average growth rate during the previous year. Manufacturing lost only 400 jobs in the three-month period in spite of the loss of 1,600 aerospace jobs. Construction employment increased 900 in June, July, and August and government employment expand-ed by 3,000 jobs. As usual, the bulk of the net new jobs occurred in private, service-providing sectors, which added 12,500 jobs.

The state treasury benefits.

Major General Fund-State revenue collections for the September 11 – October 10, 2017 collection period came in $45.5 million (3.2%) above the September forecast. Revenue Act taxes came in $23.7 million (1.9%) above the forecast and non-Revenue Act taxes were $21.7 million (13.3%) above the forecast. Much of the variance in non-Revenue Act taxes, however, was from a one-time $7.4 million payment for past-due taxes.

And there was retroactive positive news in revised personal income estimates.

After the September forecast was released, the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released state personal income estimates for the second quarter of 2017. According to these estimates, Washington personal income rose to $412.3 billion (SAAR) in the second quarter of 2017 from $409.1 billion in the first quarter. The reported 3.2% growth rate (SAAR) in Washington personal income was the 18th largest among the states and District of Columbia and slightly exceeded the 2.9% growth rate for the U.S. as a whole. Over the last year, from the second quarter of 2016 to the second quarter of 2017, Washington personal income grew 4.1% which was well above the 2.9% for the nation and 3rd highest among the states and the District of Columbia. 

All in all, a good report.