The headlines today appear to confirm recent evidence that the national economy is slowing down. It’s a position with which we tend to agree. So, on its face, the news from payroll processor ADP resonates credibly.
Private sector employment increased by 135,000 jobs from August to September according to the September ADP National Employment Report®…
“The job market has shown signs of a slowdown,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “The average monthly job growth for the past three months is 145,000, down from 214,000 for the same time period last year.”
Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “Businesses have turned more cautious in their hiring. Small businesses have become especially hesitant. If businesses pull back any further, unemployment will begin to rise.”
Here’s the ADP breakdown by business size.
CNBC reports it’s a mixed result: better than expected, worse than desired,
The AP points out,
The ADP’s figures don’t include government hiring and frequently diverge from the government’s official report, which is scheduled to be released Friday. Economists expect that report will show 140,000 jobs were added.
Looking back, we find that the ADP number was off considerably from the official report last month. That time, the official government employment figures showed 130,000 new jobs, including 25,000 Census hires.
The numbers were also well below the ADP estimate of 195,000 jobs excluding government employment.
We’ll know more Friday.