The Economic and Revenue Forecast Council today adopted a forecast adding $962 million to anticipated collections through the current and next biennium. This comes the day after the ERFC reported collections for the two months since the September forecast were beating expectations.
The new forecast:
Summing the changes to the GF-S, ELTA, OPA and WEIA forecasts, total state revenue subject to the budget outlook process is forecasted to increase by $634 million in the 2019-21 biennium, $328 million in the 2021-23 biennium and $28 million in the 2023-25 biennium.
The forecasted sum of GF-S, ELTA, OPA and WEIA revenue for the 2019-21 biennium is now $50.995 billion, 10.7% higher than 2017-19 biennial revenue, and forecasted total revenue for the 2021-23 biennium is $54.666 billion, an increase of 7.2% over expected 2019-21 biennial revenue. Forecasted total revenue for the 2023-25 biennium is $58.007 billion, an increase of 6.1% over expected 2021-23 biennial revenue.
As always, the ERFC presentation contains a lot of useful information about the state and national economies. Rather than attempt to summarize here, we encourage you to review the report. Here’s the concluding slide of the presentation.
Earlier, we had written that we’d be surprised if this forecast showed a large increase. We’re surprised. Pleasantly.