Another good month for state revenue collections, now cumulatively 3.9 percent higher than September forecast

The latest monthly economic and revenue update from the state Economic and Revenue Forecast Council continues a good news trend. (See last month’s report here.)

Major General Fund-State (GF-S) revenue collections for the October 11 – November 10, 2017 collection period came in $73.6 million (4.5%) above the September forecast. $25.6 million of the collection variance came from transfers of unclaimed property into the GF-S. Much of the surplus, however, likely came from earlier-than-expected payments, which would reduce collections next month. Cumulatively, collections are now $119.1 million (3.9%) higher than forecasted in September.

The year-over-year trend is healthy.

Adjusted for this year’s net one-time payments, collections grew 6.8% year over year. The 12-month moving average of year-over-year growth decreased to 6.2%. Seasonally adjusted collections increased sharply from last month’s level.

And, despite some weakening, the state economy looks good, according to ERFC.

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose 3,600 (seasonally adjusted) in Sep-tember, which was 3,600 less than the 7,200 expected in the September forecast. Manufacturing gained 1,200 jobs in September including 200 aerospace jobs. The construction sector, however, lost 900 jobs, as did government. Private, service-providing sectors added 4,200 jobs in September…

Third quarter 2017 Washington exports were down 5.2% from the third quarter of 2016. The decline was mostly due to a 9.4% reduction in trans-portation equipment exports (mostly Boeing planes). Exports of agricultural products fell 11.4% over the year but agricultural exports were unusually strong in the third quarter last year. Exports of all other commodities (mostly manufacturing) increased 7.1% over the year.

The continued health in collections augurs well for the 2018 supplemental budget deliberations.