The latest monthly update from the Economic and Revenue Forecast Council continues a summer run of positive reports (see July and August).
Major General Fund-State (GF-S) revenue collections for the August 11 – September 10, 2018 collection period came in $71.9 million (4.8%) above the June forecast. Cumulatively, collections are now $146.9 million (3.0%) higher than forecasted.
Both the national and state economies show strength.
The national economy continues to expand with an increase in employment, record low initial unemployment insurance claims and continued expansion in manufacturing activity. However, existing home sales dipped and auto sales remained weak.
The U.S. economy added 201,000 net new jobs in August. Employment data for June and July were revised down by 50,000 jobs. Sectors with notable employment gains in August included health care (+33,000), professional and technical services (+28,000), construction (+23,000), wholesale trade (+22,000), accommodation and food services (+20,000) and administrative and support services (+20,000). Industries with net employment declines in August included clothing and accessories stores (-21,000), information (-6,000), performing arts and spectator sports (-5,000), state government excluding education (-3,000), and manufacturing (-3,000)...
We have three months of new Washington employment data since the June forecast was released. Total nonfarm payroll employment rose 24,300 (seasonally adjusted) in June, July, and August, which was 6,300 more than the 17,900 expected in the June forecast. The variance in employment growth was mostly due to the private services-providing sec-tors, which added 18,600 jobs compared to 14,200 in the June forecast. Manufacturing employment increased 1,300 in June, July, and August, boosted by an increase of 1,100 aerospace employees. Construction employment increased by 900 jobs and government payrolls expanded by 3,500 jobs.
The ERFC has also released its final September economic forecast.
It all suggest another bump in the next official revenue forecast, which will be released September 26.
