Economic and Revenue Forecast Council releases new economic review: “very slightly weaker,” but still growing faster than U.S.

The Economic and Revenue Forecast Council met yesterday to hear the latest economic review delivered by ERFC executive director and chief economist Steve Lerch. Lerch, whose contract was extended by the council at the meeting, said it was a “very slightly weaker forecast.” (TVW coverage of the 22-minute meeting here; link to meeting materials here.) Lerch, however, pointed out that Washington continues to do better than the nation as a whole.

The economic review precedes the June 15 update to the official revenue forecast. Based on this meeting, we don’t expect any major change in the outlook. As we reported in May, revenue collections are ahead of the February forecast.

Here are a few highlight slides from yesterday’s report. 

Overall, things look pretty good.

ERFC summary

 The risks are familiar.

ERFC risks

State personal income, while growing a bit more slowly than forecast, remains strong relative to the nation.


As does employment.

ERFC Employment

In conclusion,

ERFC conclusion

There are no guarantees, but … so far, so good.