Yesterday’s update from the state Economic and Revenue Forecast Council continues the monthly theme this past year (and more): Collections are coming in above expectations, jobs grows is strong, and personal income is up.
First, the revenue numbers.
Major General Fund-State (GF-S) revenue collections for the November 11 – December 10, 2019 collection period came in $83.7 million (2.9%) above the November forecast. During the period, there was a net of $48.8 million in large one-time payments for past due tax- es, less one large refund. Without these net payments, which were not included in the forecast, collections would have been $34.8 million (1.2%) higher than forecasted.
As the chart below shows, collections have been consistently strong.
The ERFC reports,
Adjusted for large one-time payments and refunds, collec- tions grew 7.1% year over year (see figure). The 12-month moving average of year-over- year growth decreased to 6.7%. Seasonally adjusted collections increased from last month’s level.
State economic growth continues apace. This month the ERFC included a look at personal income growth by county. There’s the usual urban-rural disparity in economic performance, with King County leading the growth.
In November, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released new county personal income estimates for 2018 and revised estimates for 1998-2017. These estimates incorporate the results of the July 2019 annual update of the National Income and Product Accounts and are consistent with the September 2019 annual up- date of state personal income. King County led the state in personal income growth with an 8.4% increase over 2017. The personal income growth rate for the state as a whole was 7.5%.