The state Economic and Revenue Forecast Council released its preliminary economic forecast yesterday. Overall, the forecast contains positive news about Washington’s economic recovery.
We expect real GDP to increase 6.6% in 2021 and 4.4% in 2022 which is much stronger than the 5.7% and 4.1% growth rates assumed in the March forecast.
The economists do expect growth to slow over time.
For 2023-25, we assume that some of the higher near term growth is offset by weaker long term growth. We expect growth rates of 2.3%, 2.0%, and 1.9% in 2023 through 2025 compared to the March forecast of 2.4%, 2.2%, and 2.1% in the March forecast.
Some other highlights include better than anticipated employment growth and continued strength in personal income.
For 2023-25, we assume that some of the higher near term growth is offset by weaker long term growth. We expect growth rates of 2.3%, 2.0%, and 1.9% in 2023 through 2025 compared to the March forecast of 2.4%, 2.2%, and 2.1% in the March forecast. …
Washington’s unemployment rate held steady at 5.5% in April. The unemployment rate is down significantly from the 16.3% rate reached in April 2020 which was an all-time high in the series that dates back to 1976.
And,
Our current estimate of Washington personal income in the fourth quarter of 2020 is $4.1 billion (0.8%) higher than in the March forecast. Wages and salaries are $3.5 billion (1.3%) higher than expected and nonwage income is $0.6 billion (0.2%) higher than expected.
In all, it augurs well for the revenue forecast to be released later this month.
