Revenue update shows state collections are $380.3 million above September forecast.

Today’s update from the Economic and Revenue Forecast Council shows state tax collections continue to beat expectations.

Major General Fund-State (GF-S) revenue
collections for the October 11 – November 10,
2020 collection period came in $247.8 million 1.0

(14.0%) higher than the September forecast. Cumulatively, collections are now $380.3 million (11.5%) higher than forecasted.

This chart shows something that looks very much like a V-shaped recovery for tax collections, which we hasten to point out is not the same thing as an economic recovery.

Collections are now nearly at the pre-COVID trend.

The ERFC comments on the state economy.

We have two months of new Washington employment data since the September forecast was released. Employment continued to rise in September and October following the historic declines in March, April, and May. Total nonfarm payroll employment rose 18,200 (seasonally adjusted) in September and October which was 22,000 less than expected in the September forecast. Private services-providing sectors added 32,400 jobs in the two-month period. The manufacturing sector lost 700 jobs which was more than accounted for by the loss of 3,800 aerospace jobs. Construction employment increased by 6,000. Federal government employment decreased by 7,500 however 2,300 of those were temporary Census jobs. State and local government payrolls declined by 12,200 jobs in September and October.

Washington’s unemployment rate declined to 6.0% in October from a revised 8.3% in September. The October rate is down significantly from the 16.3% rate reached in April which was an all-time high in the series that dates back to 1976.

Much more at the link. Coupled with the Washington Research Council’s assessment of the caseload forecast, this is very good news for state budget writers.