State revenue collections come in higher than forecast, again.

The latest update from the state Economic and Revenue Forecast Council shows collections continue to roll in above projections. 

Major General Fund-State (GF-S) revenue collections for the October 11 – November 10, 2021 collection period came in $139.6 million (6.5%) higher than forecasted in September. Cumulatively, collections are now $292.2 million (7.3%) higher than forecasted.

As the chart below shows, collections have grown steadily for months.

Washington Research Council economist Kriss Sjoblom writes,

The total amount received was $2,303.1 million, $139.6 million (6.5%) more than the amount expected under the forecast that ERFC adopted on September 24th.

Revenue Act taxes (primarily the sales, use, utility, and business and occupations taxes) were $86.8 million (4.9%) above the amount forecasted.

As Sjoblom writes, this report comes days ahead of a new official forecast. He’s not going far out on a limb in his prediction.

The EFRC will meet on November 19 to update the revenue forecast it adopted on September 24. I expect an upward revision. Over the last two months, collections have exceeded forecast by a total of $269.2 million (7.3%). Gov. Inslee will use the revised forecast to prepare his supplemental budget recommendation for the upcoming legislative session.

A forecast to watch.