The latest update from the state Economic and Revenue Forecast Council shows collections continue to roll in above projections.
Major General Fund-State (GF-S) revenue collections for the October 11 – November 10, 2021 collection period came in $139.6 million (6.5%) higher than forecasted in September. Cumulatively, collections are now $292.2 million (7.3%) higher than forecasted.
As the chart below shows, collections have grown steadily for months.
Washington Research Council economist Kriss Sjoblom writes,
The total amount received was $2,303.1 million, $139.6 million (6.5%) more than the amount expected under the forecast that ERFC adopted on September 24th.
Revenue Act taxes (primarily the sales, use, utility, and business and occupations taxes) were $86.8 million (4.9%) above the amount forecasted.
As Sjoblom writes, this report comes days ahead of a new official forecast. He’s not going far out on a limb in his prediction.
The EFRC will meet on November 19 to update the revenue forecast it adopted on September 24. I expect an upward revision. Over the last two months, collections have exceeded forecast by a total of $269.2 million (7.3%). Gov. Inslee will use the revised forecast to prepare his supplemental budget recommendation for the upcoming legislative session.
A forecast to watch.